Building-up modelling capacity for NECP development

In Spring 2021, the Secretariat initiated support to the institutionalizing and strengthening of modelling capacity in the Energy Community, a step welcomed by the members of the Energy and Climate Technical Working Group (ECTWG). As part of this initiative, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH* and the Secretariat facilitate a series of Regional Exchanges of Modelling Experts involved in the development of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs).

NECPs are among the various sectoral planning and climate reporting efforts ongoing or planned in the Contracting Parties of the Energy Community, which require thorough modelling capacity. These efforts rely on scenario-based models assessing the impact of existing and planned policies and measures on the development of energy systems and greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Modelling results help to form a rational position on national contributions towards the Paris Agreement and future Energy Community targets.

* Under the lead of the GIZ project “Capacity Development for Climate Policy in the countries of South East, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Phase III”, a project being part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Government.

Three steps to support the build-up of modelling capacities  

Three steps: Description:
   
     
 		 Institutionalizing modelling work:
  • Modelling efforts such as under NECP development processes create factual and methodological knowledge, which should be kept and be available for future application. Embedding modelling work in an institutional framework will help to preserve such knowledge (data and analytical skills) for its effective use and future expansion. Creating an institutional memory around different modelling projects will help to foster modelling results that are relevant, transparent and consistent – both – over time and across planning and reporting processes.

Strengthening modelling capacity:
  • Experts conducting the modelling work need to have profound modelling skills to create credible results. In addition, national public administration needs to have sufficient expertise to oversee the required modelling work as to receive relevant results. Once institutional arrangements and responsibilities of certain positions, departments and institutions in the modelling process are clearly defined, upcoming capacity development efforts and trainings can be well-targeted and achieve an increased modelling capacity not only on a project-base, but also in the medium- or long-term.

Intensifying regional coordination and harmonization:
  • Coordination and harmonization of assumptions and principles will help to generate results that are comparable across the region, facilitate learning and thus improve the quality of national as well as of regional modelling efforts.

Recent exchanges under the initiative
 

  • Regional Exchange of NECP Modellers series II

    Series II of Regional Exchange of NECP Modellers – 2021/ 2022 
     

    The second series of Regional Exchanges of Modelling Experts involved in the development of NECPs was kicked-off in October 2021. 

    All participants adopted the agenda, which envisaged three topic areas for the working period: Indicators, data and assumptions; Policy options and targets; Tools. In August 2022, participants were invited to evaluate this second series of exchanges and to provide ideas on the future agenda. The results will be presented at the next Regional Exchange meeting.

    15th Regional Exchange: The future electricity market with 100% renewables

    18 May 2022, 09:30-11:45 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Asami Miketa, IRENA: Factors influencing the long-term planning for VREs: Challenges and opportunities
    • Aleksandar Dedinec, Macedonian Academy of Science and Art (MANU): Coal phase-out in North Macedonia - The model behind the decision
    • Franziska Schöniger, TU Wien: Modelling activities related to the Austrian 100% RES target for 2030
    • Davor Bajs, Energy Community Secretariat: Flexibility options to support decarbonization in the Energy Community - Study results
    • Francesco Lombardi, TU Delft: Policy Decision Support for Renewables Deployment through Spatially Explicit Practically Optimal Alternatives
    • Anett Großmann, GWS Institute of Economic Structures Research: Economy-wide Effects of Climate Change and Adaptation in the Energy Sector of Kazakhstan
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    14th Regional Exchange: Specific needs for regional guidelines / databases / surveys

    16 March 2022, 09:00-10:00 am CET, virtual 
    • Agenda
    • Summary of discussion and participants’ view on the need for regional guidelines, a database or surveys (restricted access)
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    13th Regional Exchange: Renewable energy shares under the SHARES Tool

    23 February 2022, 09:00-10:30 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Fernando Diaz-Alonso, EUROSTAT: Introduction to the SHARES Tool
    • Vlatka Kos Grabar Robina, Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar: Experiences from applying the SHARES Tool in Croatia
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    12th Regional Exchange: Energy efficiency indicators under the Odyssee-MURE project

    19 January 2022, 09:00-10:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Wolfgang Eichhammer, Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation Research (ISI): How can the NECP modelling work benefit from the Odyssee-MURE project?
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    11th Regional Exchange: Parameters and variables reported under Croatia’s and Austria’s NECPs

    15 December 2021, 09:00-10:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Maja Božičević Vrhovčak, Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar: Parameters and variables reported under Croatia’s NECP
    • Thomas Krutzler, Environment Agency Austria: Parameters and variables reported under Austria’s NECP
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    10th Regional Exchange: Introduction of national modelling teams / work

    17 November 2021, 09:00-10:30 am CET, virtual
    • Presentation Guide: Presentation of national modelling teams
    • Minutes of the meeting (restricted access)
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    9th Regional Exchange: Adoption of Phase II Agenda

    14 October 2021, 09:00-10:15 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Anja Rosenberg, Energy Community Secretariat: Presentation of evaluation results of Phase I (restricted access)
    • Minutes of the meeting (restricted access)
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  • Training – LEAP users 2022

    LEAP User Group – Training workshops in 2022
     

    Various participants of the Regional Exchange of NECP Modellers leverage on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) developed at the Stockholm Environment Institute. Therefore, the majority of participants decided to create a LEAP User Group under the umbrella of the Regional Exchange series, which would facilitate a discussion of topics specific to modelling with LEAP in the NECP context. The LEAP User Group has been open to all participants of the Regional Exchange of Modelling experts and colleagues.

    The  first set of meetings under the LEAP User Group took the form of webinar-like training workshops. These were conducted by experts from Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI in Germany in February and March 2022. In March 2022, participants provided their feedback on the LEAP User Group via a mentimeter poll.
     

    4th LEAP User Group Workshop: Supply-side optimization with LEAP - Sharing experiences

    17 March 2022, 09:00-10:30 am CET, virtual

    Presentation: Supply-side optimization with LEAP: Sharing experiences

    • How do you use optimization functionalities of LEAP in your work?
    • How to set up supply side optimization and what LEAP can (not) do
    • Should you be using an optimized model for the NECP?

     

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    3rd LEAP User Group Workshop: Structuring your LEAP model to reflect policies - Steps towards a policy specific output analysis

    10 March 2022, 09:00-10:30 am CET, virtual

    Presentation: Structuring your LEAP model to reflect policies - Steps towards a policy specific output analysis

    • How are separate policies reflected in your model currently?
    • How to use the functionalities of LEAP to set up policy specific scenarios
    • Towards a readable and clearly programmed model!

     

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    2nd LEAP User Group Workshop: Integrating non-energy sectors and emissions in LEAP

    03 March 2022, 09:00-10:30 am CET, virtual

    Presentation: Integrating non-energy sectors and emissions in LEAP

    • Where do you currently estimate non-energy emissions
    • How to program these in LEAP for one consistent model
    • Simple linear examples and steps towards a dynamic waste sector!

     

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    1st LEAP User Group Workshop: Selecting and programming indicators

    24 February 2022, 09:00-10:30 am CET, virtual

    Presentation: Selecting and programming indicators

    • How do you currently use and generate indicator data, such as SHARES results
    • How to program these in LEAP to facilitate your work
    • My model is slow now! Pitfalls and shortcomings to consider
    • Excel: SHARES indicators (restricted access)

     

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  • Regional Exchange of NECP Modellers series I

    Series I of the Regional Exchange of NECP Modellers – 2020/ 2021
     

    The first series of Regional Exchanges of Modelling Experts involved in the development of NECPs was kicked-off in April 2020. Sessions and topics were demand-driven, as some modelling teams had just started their work on NECP development, while others had been already advanced.

    In June 2021, participants were invited to evaluate this first series of exchanges and to provide ideas on the future agenda and format of the next series.
     

    8th Regional Exchange: Energy balance

    30 March 2021, 09:30-10:30 pm CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Milka Mumovic, Energy Community Secretariat: Energy Community acquis on statistics
    • Esad Smajlovic, GIZ BIH: Discrepancies between different official data sources available

     

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    7th Regional Exchange: Policy options - Carbon pricing design

    25 February 2021, 14:30-16:00 pm CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Michael Mehling, Deputy Director, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (MIT CEEPR): Theoretical principles and design options for carbon taxes - Interaction of different carbon pricing instruments in one instrument cluster
    • Vicki Duscha, Coordinator Climate Policy Unit, Fraunhofer Institute for System- and Innovation Research (ISI): Design options for an emission trading scheme with a particular focus on related modelling approaches

     

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    6th Regional Exchange: GDP projections

    21 January 2021, 09:30-10:30 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Aleksandar Dedinec, Macedonian Academy of Science and Art (MANU): Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and energy sector in North Macedonia – New GDP projection developed as a part of the Energy Strategy
    • Wolfgang Eichhammer, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI: Experiences with GDP projections and impacts from former economic crisis
    • Minutes of the meeting 

     

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    5th Regional Exchange: NECP development and modelling processes in EU MS – Germany + South East Asian Energy Outlook

    02 September 2020, 10:00-11:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Fabian Voswinkel, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI: Experiences from developing the analytical basis of the German NECP
    • Jose Antonio Ordonez, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI: The development of Southeast Asian Energy Outlooks

     

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    4th Regional Exchange: Modelling tools - LEAP

    07 July 2020, 10:00-11:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Esad Smajlovic, GIZ BIH: Introduction to LEAP for the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina + Challenges in modelling energy supply and demand, incl. highlighting the industry sector
    • Minutes of the meeting (restricted access)

     

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    3rd Regional Exchange: Sensitivity analysis

    09 June 2020, 10:00-11:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Aleksandar Dedinec, Macedonian Academy of Science and Art (MANU): Sensitivity analysis
    • Minutes of the meeting (restricted access)

     

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    2nd Regional Exchange: Reflecting specific sectors and technologies in the model incl. transport, households, industry

    27 May 2020, 10:00-12:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Mirza Kusljugic: Multi-criteria-based selection of RES technologies and design of optimum RES mix
    • Aleksandar Dedinec, Macedonian Academy of Science and Art (MANU): Emission factors for imported electricity + Modelling of useful energy demand in transport
    • Biljana Cherepnalkoska: Fuel economy of hybrid vehicles
    • Verica. T. Gjorgievska, Macedonian Academy of Science and Art (MANU): Modelling of useful energy demand in households
    • Zdravko Stefanovski: Modelling of heat pumps and trigeneration technologies
    • Minutes of the meeting (restricted access)

     

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    1st Regional Exchange: Reflecting specific sectors and technologies in the model incl. transport, households, industry

    30 April 2020, 09:30-12:00 am CET, virtual
    • Agenda
    • Anja Rosenberg, Energy Community Secretariat: Short report about the status of the analytical part of the NECP development process
    • Aleksandar Dedinec, Macedonian Academy of Science and Art (MANU): Deep dive - Assumptions on main exogenous factors influencing energy system and GHG emission developments incl. GDP, population growth, interest rates, sectoral changes, fuel prices, EU ETS carbon price
    • Minutes of the meeting (restricted access)

     

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